US-Iran Set Friday Hormuz MOU as 60-Day Toll Plan Clouds Reopening
Updated
Updated · POLITICO · Jun 15
US-Iran Set Friday Hormuz MOU as 60-Day Toll Plan Clouds Reopening
3 articles · Updated · POLITICO · Jun 15
Summary
Friday’s expected memorandum in Switzerland would only start a 60-day technical negotiation, even as Vice President Vance said the deal has already reopened Hormuz and traffic has picked up.
Iran’s state-linked Tasnim said Tehran plans to charge ships for services after that 60-day period, underscoring that it does not intend to surrender control of the strait.
Shipowners still see transit as risky: BIMCO said the security picture remains volatile, and Maersk has not changed Persian Gulf operations because details on timing and safe routes are limited.
Mine clearing and vessel backlogs could delay normalization for weeks or longer; Sparta called full flows within 1-2 weeks optimistic, while the IEA had estimated 2-3 months after mines are cleared for steady exports.
That uncertainty is keeping pressure on oil and gasoline prices, with energy companies warning low crude and fuel inventories could drive costs higher even if the strait reopens.
With mines posing a six-month threat, is the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz more political theater than commercial reality?
After this historic disruption, will global trade permanently abandon the volatile Middle East as a primary transit corridor?
Has the Hormuz crisis signaled the end of America's role as the guardian of global trade routes?
2026 Strait of Hormuz Disruption: Shipping, Oil, and Global Trade at Risk
Overview
As of June 2026, the Strait of Hormuz is cautiously reopening after a major crisis, but commercial shipping remains hesitant due to ongoing risks and costs. Despite diplomatic announcements, shipowners are waiting for a solid agreement between the United States and Iran to ensure safe passage. Iran’s evolving role as gatekeeper has led to new proposals for transit fees, challenging the long-standing principle of free navigation. This has created a gap between official statements and the reality faced by the shipping industry, which continues to operate under heightened security and uncertainty, reflecting the need for lasting stability in the region.