10-Year Yield Falls to 4.43% as Iran Deal Eases Oil Shock Before Fed Meeting
Updated
Updated · HousingWire · Jun 15
10-Year Yield Falls to 4.43% as Iran Deal Eases Oil Shock Before Fed Meeting
3 articles · Updated · HousingWire · Jun 15
Summary
The 10-year Treasury yield slipped to 4.43% Sunday and mortgage rates stood at 6.58%, with markets reacting to President Trump’s announcement of an Iran deal he said could be signed Friday.
Oil near $81 instead of a feared move above $100 has eased the conflict-driven pressure that pushed the 10-year yield to 4.68% and mortgage rates to 6.75%, suggesting this year’s worst rate spike may have passed.
Fed policy still dominates the outlook, with the report estimating 65%-75% of the range for yields and mortgage rates will be set by this week’s meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh.
Best-case mortgage rates after a favorable Fed outcome are seen at 6.25%-6.375%, while the base case is 6.50%-6.75%; a hawkish turn could lift rates 0.375%-0.435% above the 6.75% peak forecast.