Updated

Updated · KTVZ · Jun 11

Oregon Farmers Face 2-Producer Fertilizer Squeeze as Hormuz Disruptions Lift Costs

Updated

Updated · KTVZ · Jun 11

Oregon Farmers Face 2-Producer Fertilizer Squeeze as Hormuz Disruptions Lift Costs

Q: A fertilizer crisis threatens global food supply. How many could face starvation by 2027?

The best-supported estimate is that about **45 million additional people** could be pushed into **acute hunger or worse** if the fertilizer disruption persists into 2027, on top of the hundreds of millions already food insecure. That figure comes from expert warnings cited in the reporting, including analysis referenced by the U.N. World Food Programme and CSIS. The underlying mechanism is clear: the Strait of Hormuz disruption has choked off a major share of global fertilizer trade and key inputs such as ammonia, urea, sulfur, and natural gas. With fertilizer prices surging, many farmers are cutting application rates or planting less, which raises the risk of lower yields in late 2026 and into the 2027 crop cycle. The broader baseline is already severe. The reporting says roughly **318 million people** were already food insecure globally, and a prolonged shock could push totals back toward or above the **349 million** level seen during the earlier global food crisis. FAO officials warn the damage may intensify in 2027 because missed or delayed fertilizer use affects harvests months later. So, while there is **no precise starvation-only forecast for 2027** in the material provided, the clearest evidence points to **45 million more people facing acute food insecurity**, with the worst impacts expected in import-dependent parts of **Asia and Africa**.

3 articles · Updated · KTVZ · Jun 11

Central Oregon farmers are paying more for fertilizer while supplies tighten, squeezing already thin margins for crop and hay producers.
Strait of Hormuz disruptions tied to the Iran war have left ships stuck and choked global fertilizer flows, with major nitrogen supplies linked to Middle Eastern producers such as Saudi Arabia, Oman and Egypt.
Local shortages are sharper because Central Oregon’s main fertilizer producers have fallen from four to two in recent years, cutting regional production capacity.
Hay growers are especially exposed: prices have fallen over several years, and AgWest Farm Credit says hay is now only somewhat profitable, leaving some farmers relieved they skipped fertilizer purchases this season.