Boston College Says $26.6 Trillion Cassidy-Kaine Social Security Plan Is Unlikely to Work
Updated
Updated · Fortune · Jun 14
Boston College Says $26.6 Trillion Cassidy-Kaine Social Security Plan Is Unlikely to Work
1 articles · Updated · Fortune · Jun 14
Summary
Boston College simulations found the Cassidy-Kaine proposal would most likely leave the government with heavy debt rather than rescue Social Security, despite aiming to preserve full benefits without tax hikes or cuts.
The plan would borrow $1.5 trillion for a stock-heavy investment fund and another $25.1 trillion to cover benefit shortfalls over 75 years, betting market gains can repay the total $26.6 trillion.
At the plan’s assumed 6.5% real annual return, the fund still failed to cover the added debt in about 64% of simulations; at a 4% real return, the failure rate rose to 83%.
The warning comes as Social Security’s trust fund is now projected to run dry by 2032, which would trigger a 22% benefit cut unless Congress acts.
Boston College said stocks could still play a role in reform if paired with tax increases or equivalent benefit cuts, citing a model that invests 40% of a shored-up trust fund in equities.
Could a $26 trillion bet on the stock market save Social Security, or would it simply mortgage America’s future?
Can America adopt Australia’s private retirement model without jeopardizing benefits promised to today's seniors?
Social Security’s $1.5 Trillion Gamble: Assessing the Cassidy-Kaine Plan and the Urgent Need for Real Reform
Overview
The United States is facing an urgent fiscal crisis, with Social Security at its core. Over 74% of federal spending is mandatory, covering programs like Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid, all of which need reform. The national debt now exceeds $40 trillion, with publicly held debt matching the entire GDP. If these issues are not addressed quickly, the country risks falling into an insurmountable financial hole. The report highlights the need for immediate action to repair these entitlement programs and prevent further strain on the nation’s finances and future generations.