S&P 500 Hits 100-Year Valuation Premium as Market Cap Reaches 2 Times GDP

3 articles · Updated · The Motley Fool · Jun 14

CME data show the S&P 500 is trading at its richest yield-adjusted premium in more than 100 years, while its market capitalization has climbed to double trailing 12-month U.S. GDP.
That stretch follows a powerful run—total returns of 26% in 2023, 25% in 2024, 18% in 2025 and 7.8% so far in 2026—with the Shiller P/E above 41 and price-to-book and price-to-sales at records.
Corporate earnings are the main counterweight: S&P 500 companies posted 28.6% aggregate earnings growth in the first quarter, and analysts expect 22.8% growth for full-year 2026.
Credit markets are also flashing confidence, with high-yield spreads near historic lows at end-May, a pattern CME analysts say differs from the widening spreads that preceded the 2000 and 2007 peaks.
The report’s broader takeaway is caution rather than a crash call: valuations are extreme, but strong earnings and tight credit spreads suggest any market plunge may still be years away.