Thailand’s Q1 GDP Slips to -0.1% After Inventory Adjustment, Undercutting Official 2.8% Growth
Updated
Updated · Bangkok Post · Jun 11
Thailand’s Q1 GDP Slips to -0.1% After Inventory Adjustment, Undercutting Official 2.8% Growth
1 articles · Updated · Bangkok Post · Jun 11
Summary
Adjusted for inventory buildup, Thailand’s first-quarter 2026 GDP would fall to -0.1%, not the official 2.8%, indicating the economy weakened despite three straight quarters of higher headline growth.
Inventory accumulation—especially fuel stockpiling amid rising U.S.-Iran tensions and oil prices—boosted measured GDP without signaling stronger demand, helping explain why households still needed 66 billion baht and 172 billion baht cash-handout programs.
Exports rose 17.8% in Q1, but manufacturing output increased only 1%, suggesting much of the trade surge came from re-exports rather than domestic production; imports jumped 33.1%.
That mismatch pushed Thailand’s trade balance to a $303 million deficit from a $1.42 billion surplus in the prior quarter, while April’s deficit widened to $6.8 billion as oil prices began to bite.
The report argues the weakness is structural: Thailand’s manufacturing base is eroding, and Bank of Thailand liquidity support—including 125.6 billion baht in new banknotes in Q4 2025 and 110.2 billion more through April—has not revived lending.