Brent Could Spike to $130 by July as 13 Million Bpd Hormuz Shock Drains Buffers
Updated
Updated · OilPrice.com · Jun 12
Brent Could Spike to $130 by July as 13 Million Bpd Hormuz Shock Drains Buffers
3 articles · Updated · OilPrice.com · Jun 12
Summary
End-July could mark an oil-market inflection point, with ING warning Brent may jump to $120-$130 a barrel this summer if Strait of Hormuz tanker flows stay largely constrained.
Three buffers that kept crude below $100 despite a 13 million bpd supply disruption are fading: China cut imports to their lowest since October 2017, U.S. exports drew heavily on inventories, and strategic stock releases are nearing an end.
ING expects the market to remain in deficit through the third quarter, with Brent averaging about $110 from July to September before easing in the fourth quarter and in 2027 if Middle East flows recover.
Higher prices would raise pressure on Washington to secure a U.S.-Iran deal, while prolonged disruption could push energy-starved buyers to consider paying Iran tolls for safe passage through Hormuz.
With history's worst oil crisis underway, what happens when the illusion of stable prices shatters this summer?
Is the Hormuz crisis accelerating a global shift away from the U.S. dollar's dominance in the oil trade?
Global Oil Shock 2026: Strait of Hormuz Crisis Drives Brent to $111, Triggers Supply Disruption and Economic Turmoil
Overview
As of June 2026, Brent crude oil is trading at $111.50, reflecting a market shaped by both rising U.S. shale oil production and intense geopolitical tensions. While increased U.S. output helps buffer global supply and can prevent sharp price spikes, recent events like the torching of storage tanks in Bahrain and, most critically, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have introduced significant volatility. The Strait’s closure has forced a major country to cut 1.5 million barrels per day and halt exports, amplifying supply concerns and keeping oil prices elevated amid ongoing uncertainty.