Donald Trump turns 80 on Sunday, and demographers cited in the report say his age, visible functionality and wealth make living into his 90s plausible.
At 80, American men are expected to live to nearly 89 on average, with only about a 5% chance of dying within the next year; men in the wealthiest 10% of U.S. counties can expect another 9.2 years.
By one estimate using 2023 mortality data, men who reach 80 face an 11% chance of dying by 82 and less than an 18% chance by 83—roughly implying under a 1-in-5 chance Trump dies before his term ends in 2028.
Experts still stress wide uncertainty: sudden health declines are common in octogenarians, and population averages may overstate what wealth can protect against.
If Trump completes his second term, he would leave office in 2028 at 82 years and seven months, the oldest person ever to have served as U.S. president.