Scotland Top Group C After 1-0 Win, 1 More Point Would Almost Seal Last-32 Spot
Updated
Updated · BBC.com · Jun 14
Scotland Top Group C After 1-0 Win, 1 More Point Would Almost Seal Last-32 Spot
3 articles · Updated · BBC.com · Jun 14
Summary
One more point from matches against Morocco and Brazil would leave Scotland almost certain to reach the World Cup last 32 after opening Group C with a 1-0 win over Haiti.
Three points alone may still be enough, but only if goal difference holds up: Football Meets Data gives a third-placed Scotland side an 87.5% progression chance at -1, falling to 69.4% at -2.
That margin matters because Scotland created little in Boston despite John McGinn's winner, posting 1.05 xG and an 82% pass-completion rate against the world's 83rd-ranked team.
History offers mixed comfort: in seven tournaments since 1998, the fifth-best third-placed team always had at least three points, yet 13 teams on three points still failed to advance.