Updated

Updated · ESPN · Jun 13

Spurs Open as 5.5-Point Favorites in Finals Game 5 as ESPN Sees 216.5-Point Total

Updated

Updated · ESPN · Jun 13

Spurs Open as 5.5-Point Favorites in Finals Game 5 as ESPN Sees 216.5-Point Total

Q: Why are the Spurs favored to win when the Knicks are one victory from a historic title?

The Spurs are favored because oddsmakers are pricing Game 5 as a single home game, not as a judgment on who is more likely to win the series. San Antonio has several factors working in its favor for this matchup. The game is in San Antonio, where the Spurs were strong all season, and teams facing elimination at home often get a boost from urgency and crowd energy. Betting markets and ESPN’s BPI both still rate the Spurs slightly better in this specific spot, with ESPN projecting a 57% win probability and a margin of about 2.3 points. The 3-1 series score also overstates the gap between the teams. All four games have been one-possession games in the final two minutes, and the Knicks’ total edge across the series is only eight points. San Antonio has held double-digit leads in every game and was up 29 in Game 4 before collapsing. From a betting perspective, that suggests a very competitive series in which the Spurs have been close to flipping multiple results. There is also belief in San Antonio’s ability to adjust, especially around Victor Wembanyama. New York’s use of Jalen Brunson in ball screens pulled Wembanyama away from the rim and wore him down, but sportsbooks appear to expect the Spurs to respond tactically and get more from their star at home. So the line reflects home court, underlying team strength, and the closeness of the series—not the fact that New York is one win from the title.

Q: Can San Antonio recover from the biggest collapse in Finals history to save its season?

No. San Antonio could not recover from the Game 4 collapse, and its season ended in Game 5. The Spurs entered Game 5 with reasons to believe they could extend the series. They were at home, listed as 5.5-point favorites, and ESPN’s model gave them a 57% chance to win. Through four games, the series had been extremely tight despite New York’s 3-1 lead, with the Knicks holding only an eight-point aggregate edge. Victor Wembanyama had also been dominant, and San Antonio had shown it could build big leads. But the larger evidence pointed the other way. The Knicks’ 29-point comeback in Game 4 was the biggest in NBA Finals history and dealt a major psychological blow. Historically, teams trailing 3-1 in the Finals almost never recover; before this year, only the 2016 Cavaliers had done it. New York also had the more experienced, healthier roster and had been the steadier late-game team throughout the series. Tactically, the Knicks found a real pressure point by using Jalen Brunson in ball screens to drag Wembanyama away from the rim and wear him down. That adjustment helped fuel the comeback and forced San Antonio into a difficult Game 5 response. New York’s veteran core, especially Brunson, OG Anunoby and Josh Hart, continued to make winning plays. The final result settled it: the Knicks won Game 5, 94-90, to take the series 4-1 and secure their first NBA championship since 1973.

3 articles · Updated · ESPN · Jun 13

San Antonio enters Saturday's must-win Game 5 as a 5.5-point home favorite, even with New York leading the NBA Finals 3-1 and still listed at -500 to win the title.
ESPN's betting lean is the over on 216.5 points, citing improved shooting efficiency, expected faster pace at home and the Spurs' need to push in transition.
Josh Hart's over 8.5 points is another recommended play, with Hart projected for heavy minutes after averaging 34 in three of the four games and benefiting from rebounding and open-look opportunities.
Game 4's key tactical shift was New York repeatedly dragging Victor Wembanyama into ball screens for Jalen Brunson, a wrinkle that helped fuel the Knicks' comeback and now puts pressure on San Antonio's adjustments.
All four Finals games have been one-possession contests in the final two minutes, and New York's 3-1 edge amounts to just an eight-point aggregate lead.