Updated
Updated · vtmarkets.com · Jun 12
Brazil May IPCA Hits 0.58%, Pushing JAN27 DI Yields Up 15 Basis Points
Updated
Updated · vtmarkets.com · Jun 12

Brazil May IPCA Hits 0.58%, Pushing JAN27 DI Yields Up 15 Basis Points

3 articles · Updated · vtmarkets.com · Jun 12

Summary

  • JAN27 DI yields jumped 15 basis points to 9.85% after Brazil’s May IPCA rose 0.58%, above the 0.53% consensus and stronger than markets had priced.
  • That upside surprise is prompting investors to question a July COPOM rate cut, with nearly 40 basis points of easing previously expected by year-end now being priced out.
  • USD/BRL could retest 5.50 and the Ibovespa—already down 3% this quarter—faces added pressure as higher borrowing costs threaten earnings and lift risk premiums.
  • Annual inflation had already accelerated to 4.72% in May from 4.39%, above the central bank’s target band, giving hawkish policymakers more leverage after the last 5-4 split vote.

Insights

As inflation grips Brazil, is the flood of foreign investment a sign of confidence or a bubble on the verge of popping?
With a potential US-Iran deal, could the 50-year-old petrodollar system face its biggest challenge yet?
Are rate hikes the right medicine for inflation from a supply shock, or a painful misdiagnosis for the global economy?