$2.34 trillion is still Fannie Mae’s forecast for 2026 mortgage originations, with the agency leaving its bullish loan-production outlook unchanged in Friday’s update.
$1.45 trillion of that total would come from home-purchase loans and $892 billion from refinancings, implying a strong second-half buying season and steadier rate-driven refinance demand.
$173 billion separates Fannie Mae’s view from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s lower 2026 projection of roughly $2.17 trillion, including $1.41 trillion in purchases and $757 billion in refinances.
Seth Sprague of Richey May said the MBA forecast looks more realistic, underscoring skepticism that the housing market can deliver the stronger rebound embedded in Fannie Mae’s outlook.