Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF Trades 36% Below 5-Year P/E Average as Treasury Yields Top Its 3.8%
Updated
Updated · Trefis · Jun 12
Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF Trades 36% Below 5-Year P/E Average as Treasury Yields Top Its 3.8%
2 articles · Updated · Trefis · Jun 12
Summary
VTI trades at a 26.3 trailing P/E, about 36% below its five-year average of 41.1, making the broad U.S. stock fund look cheaper than in recent years.
That discount comes with a catch: VTI’s earnings yield is 3.8%, below the 4.6% yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury, leaving investors with a negative risk premium unless earnings growth delivers.
A 19.6 forward P/E implies analysts expect roughly 13% aggregate earnings growth over the next year, supported by about 50% EPS growth over the past year among the fund’s biggest holdings.
Nvidia, Apple and Microsoft — 6.6%, 5.7% and 4.4% of the portfolio — largely drive that outlook despite VTI holding 3,598 positions, underscoring how much the index still depends on a few mega-cap names.
The report’s broader takeaway is that VTI’s valuation looks reasonable against its own history, but the case for buying rests more on future growth than on today’s income relative to risk-free bonds.