Updated
Updated · CNBC · Jun 12
Mary Johnson Lifts 2027 Social Security COLA Estimate to 4.7% as Inflation Hits 3-Year High
Updated
Updated · CNBC · Jun 12

Mary Johnson Lifts 2027 Social Security COLA Estimate to 4.7% as Inflation Hits 3-Year High

3 articles · Updated · CNBC · Jun 12

Summary

  • Mary Johnson now estimates a 4.7% Social Security COLA for 2027, up from 4.2% a month ago, and said the figure could rise further as more inflation data arrives.
  • May prices pushed annual CPI inflation to 4.2% and CPI-W—the index used for Social Security adjustments—to 4.4%, with fuel oil up 64.1%, gasoline 40.7% and airfare 25%.
  • The Social Security Administration will set the official 2027 COLA in October based on third-quarter CPI-W data; the Senior Citizens League currently forecasts a lower 3.8%, down from 3.9% in May.
  • About 75 million beneficiaries received a 2.8% COLA in 2026, but Johnson said the average $2,000 monthly benefit rose only about $56 when roughly $94 was needed to keep pace with inflation.
  • The estimate underscores persistent pressure on older Americans: COLAs have averaged 3.1% over the past decade, while 69% of adults 50 and older say prices are rising faster than their income.

Insights

Is the decades-old formula for the annual Social Security raise accurately reflecting modern retiree expenses?
With Social Security facing a 2034 shortfall, can reforms protect benefits without penalizing future retirees?