Trump Loses 17 Points of Independent Support as Non-College Backing Falls to 27%
Updated
Updated · AP-NORC · Jun 12
Trump Loses 17 Points of Independent Support as Non-College Backing Falls to 27%
3 articles · Updated · AP-NORC · Jun 12
Summary
AP-NORC’s review of 21 survey waves found Trump’s support among independents fell 17 points from the 2024 pre-office period to early 2026, while Republican backing stayed near 75% and Democratic support near 5%.
48% to 27% marks the sharpest drop among independents without a college degree, erasing the education gap as college-educated independents slipped only from 29% to 24%.
Black and Hispanic independents also pulled back sharply—Black support fell from 38% to 17%, while Hispanic support dropped from 46% to 15%, including a 20-point slide in Trump’s first 100 days.
42% to 25% captures the decline among independents ages 18 to 29, while support among those 60 and older was relatively stable; independent men and women both fell from about 4 in 10 to around a quarter.
4,836 independents were analyzed across five periods spanning Trump’s first 100 days, the One Big Beautiful Bill, the record shutdown and the 2026 Iran-war period, with the declines remaining significant after demographic controls.