Knicks Seize 3-1 Finals Lead as Markets Price Them at 82% After 29-Point Comeback

Q: After the largest comeback in Finals history, why are the Knicks still underdogs for Game 5?

The Knicks are underdogs in Game 5 because sportsbooks are pricing the next game, not rewarding what already happened in the series. San Antonio is back at home, where oddsmakers give the Spurs a meaningful edge. Game 5 is at Frost Bank Center, and the market has installed the Spurs around -5.5 and roughly a 65-66% moneyline favorite. That reflects home-court value and the view that, on a possession-by-possession basis, San Antonio has still looked like the stronger team for long stretches. Game 4’s comeback was historic, but it also reinforced how dominant the Spurs can be when they are right. San Antonio led by 29 points and has held double-digit leads in every game of the series. Betting markets tend to treat that as evidence the Spurs are still capable of controlling play, even if they failed to close. There is also a situational angle. The Spurs have been strong after losses in these playoffs, going 7-2 straight up and against the spread. The two-day break before Game 5 is also seen as helpful for Victor Wembanyama, who appeared to fade late in Game 4. That is why the game line and the series line tell different stories. New York is a heavy favorite to win the championship overall, with title odds around 81-82%, because teams leading 3-1 in the Finals almost always finish the job. But for one specific night in San Antonio, the market still sees the Spurs as more likely to win.

Q: With two 3-1 comebacks this postseason, are the Knicks' championship odds truly as high as 82%?

Yes—roughly 82% is defensible, though it is lower than the raw historical rate for teams up 3-1 in the Finals. The key correction is that the Knicks did not produce two 3-1 series comebacks this postseason. They are the team holding a 3-1 Finals lead over San Antonio. The two 3-1 comebacks earlier in these playoffs were by Philadelphia and Detroit. That matters because those examples show such rallies are possible, but they do not directly reduce New York’s odds in this series. Historically, a 3-1 lead in the NBA Finals has been nearly decisive: teams in that position have won 37 of 38 times, about 97.4%. Across all NBA playoff series, teams leading 3-1 have also advanced the vast majority of the time. On history alone, the Knicks’ title chances would look even higher than 82%. Prediction markets are lower because they price the actual matchup ahead, not just history. San Antonio is still favored to win Game 5 at home, around 65%, and the Spurs have Victor Wembanyama, home court for the next game, and a demonstrated ability to win in this series. If the Spurs take Game 5, pressure shifts to a Game 6, and the path to a comeback becomes more realistic than the long-run historical average suggests. So 82% is not inflated. It is actually a more cautious estimate than the historical 3-1 Finals record, reflecting both New York’s commanding position and the real chance that San Antonio extends the series.

Q: Will the Spurs' historic Game 4 collapse fuel a legendary comeback or seal their Finals defeat?

The Spurs’ Game 4 collapse is far more likely to seal their Finals defeat than spark a legendary comeback. The hard evidence points that way. New York leads 3-1, and teams in that position have won 37 of 38 NBA Finals series. Across all NBA playoffs, only 15 teams have ever come back from 3-1, and only one has done it in the Finals: Cleveland in 2016. Prediction markets reflect that gap. Even with San Antonio favored to win Game 5 at home, the Knicks still hold roughly 81-82% title odds. Game 4 also carried a psychological cost beyond the standings. San Antonio did not just lose; it blew a 29-point lead and allowed the largest comeback in NBA Finals history. That kind of defeat can linger, especially when it came with late-game execution failures and visible frustration afterward. By contrast, the Knicks gained enormous momentum and reinforced their identity as a late-game team behind Jalen Brunson’s clutch play and OG Anunoby’s finishing sequence. There is still a narrow path for San Antonio. The Spurs are home favorites in Game 5, have responded well after losses this postseason, and still have the best individual force in the series in Victor Wembanyama. If they win Saturday, pressure shifts and the series extends. But the more likely outcome is that Game 4 becomes the turning point that ends San Antonio’s title hopes, not the origin of a historic rally. The Spurs may win the next game; winning three straight is the much bigger ask.

3 articles · Updated · Sports Illustrated · Jun 11

New York erased a 29-point deficit in Game 4—the largest comeback in NBA Finals history—to beat San Antonio and move one win from the title.
82% Kalshi and 81.9% Polymarket odds now favor the Knicks to win the series, reflecting the new 3-1 edge after OG Anunoby’s tip-in with 1.2 seconds left.
Game 5 pricing still leans Spurs at home: Kalshi gives San Antonio a 65% moneyline edge with a 5.5-point spread, even after New York won both opening games on the road.
37 of 38 teams that took a 3-1 lead in the NBA Finals went on to win, though this postseason has already produced two successful 3-1 comebacks elsewhere in the playoffs.

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Sports Illustrated11h ago

Knicks Take 3-1 Finals Lead, Prediction Markets Adjust Series Prices

Fox News11h ago

Knicks miraculously overcome 29-point deficit to take commanding 3-1 lead in NBA Finals over Spurs

SILive.com11h ago

Knicks vs. Spurs Game 5 odds update: Experts set first-look predictions after game-winner from OG Anunoby - silive.com

12 Sources

After the largest comeback in Finals history, why are the Knicks still underdogs for Game 5?

With two 3-1 comebacks this postseason, are the Knicks' championship odds truly as high as 82%?

Will the Spurs' historic Game 4 collapse fuel a legendary comeback or seal their Finals defeat?

Knicks Seize 3-1 Finals Lead as Markets Price Them at 82% After 29-Point Comeback

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