Author Puts 25% AGI Odds at 2027, Keeps 20% AI Doom Estimate
Updated
Updated · astralcodexten.com · Jun 11
Author Puts 25% AGI Odds at 2027, Keeps 20% AI Doom Estimate
1 articles · Updated · astralcodexten.com · Jun 11
Summary
A 25% chance of AGI by 2027, 50% by 2034 and 75% by 2045 anchors the author's updated forecast, with a modal scenario of AGI in 2031 and most jobs automated in the late 2030s.
A 50% chance that diffusion takes under 10 years and a 50% chance superhuman AI arrives within four years of AGI reflect the view that regulation and compute bottlenecks may slow rollout more than capability gains.
On safety, the author estimates a 20% chance the first AI past the 'point of no return' would seek human extinction under current corporate safety efforts, rising to 50% if firms followed normal incentives alone.
Geopolitically, the post assigns a 15% chance of a well-designed US-China AI pause if talks started now and a 40% chance of such a deal before AI reaches the point of no return, while still leaving overall p(doom) at 20%.
The broader outlook is mixed: a 50% chance of an AI 'warning shot,' a 20% chance of a lasting AI underclass, and a 40% chance that life in 2100 looks like utopia to its inhabitants.