Analysis Challenges AI Absolutism as 60% of Late-2025 US Growth Was Tied to AI
Updated
Updated · The Guardian · Jun 11
Analysis Challenges AI Absolutism as 60% of Late-2025 US Growth Was Tied to AI
3 articles · Updated · The Guardian · Jun 11
Summary
A new analysis argues extreme claims about AI—whether utopian or apocalyptic—serve a common message from tech builders and investors: AI dominance is inevitable and everyone must buy in.
Nearly 60% of U.S. economic growth in late 2025 was linked to AI, while more than 500,000 tech jobs have disappeared since ChatGPT’s 2022 launch, feeding both boom narratives and fears of mass displacement.
Economists and tech veterans cited in the piece say that link is often overstated: post-pandemic overhiring helps explain tech layoffs, and even OpenAI CEO Sam Altman recently said entry-level white-collar job losses have been smaller than he expected.
Software accounts for only about 4% to 6% of GDP, one economist noted, suggesting even severe disruption in coding would fall short of economy-wide labor collapse.
The analysis says the likelier broad impact is AI-driven surveillance and micromanagement of workers, while arguing for more moderate, worker-centered and decentralized uses of the technology.
Tech layoffs are blamed on AI, but many experts call it hype. What is the real driver behind the massive job cuts?
With firms in an 'AI Layoff Trap,' could a controversial automation tax save jobs without killing technological progress?
As AI learns to write code faster than humans, is it creating a catastrophic 'Y2K 2.0' cybersecurity crisis?
Generative AI in 2025: How Investment, Productivity, and Policy Are Shaping the U.S. Economy
Overview
By late 2025, generative AI technologies, which rose to prominence after ChatGPT’s debut in 2022, have begun to reshape the U.S. economy. Over half of Americans and more than a third of workers actively use these tools, driving a substantial investment boom. This surge led to significant spending on hardware, software, R&D, and new data centers, making AI-related investments a key driver of economic growth. The demand for computing power remains extremely high, fueling further infrastructure investment and boosting GDP growth beyond levels seen during the dot-com era.