US Housing Stays Subdued as 30-Year Mortgage Rates Hover Near 6.6%
Updated
Updated · Reuters · Jun 11
US Housing Stays Subdued as 30-Year Mortgage Rates Hover Near 6.6%
3 articles · Updated · Reuters · Jun 11
Summary
U.S. home prices are forecast to rise just 1.2% in 2026 and 2.0% in 2027, with turnover staying weak as mortgage costs remain elevated.
The 30-year mortgage rate is seen at 6.4% next quarter and 6.3% in the fourth quarter, with averages above 6.0% through 2028 after the Fed's expected rate cuts faded.
Existing home sales — about 90% of transactions — are projected to hold near a 4.1 million annualized pace before edging to just under 4.2 million, far below the 6.6 million peak in early 2021.
Affordability is the main drag: the average purchase mortgage is about $460,000, implying nearly $3,000 monthly payments, while home prices remain roughly 55% above pre-pandemic levels.
Supply is also constrained because many owners are locked into older 3% loans and reluctant to move into 6%-plus mortgages, limiting any meaningful market revival.