France Sees Pension Deficit Hit 2.4% of GDP by 2070 as Birth Rate Falls to 1.45
Updated
Updated · Reuters · Jun 11
France Sees Pension Deficit Hit 2.4% of GDP by 2070 as Birth Rate Falls to 1.45
3 articles · Updated · Reuters · Jun 11
Summary
France’s pensions advisory council said the retirement system’s outlook is broadly unchanged until 2045, then deteriorates sharply as lower birth rates start cutting the contributor base.
Fresh population estimates now put the fertility rate at 1.45 children per woman, down from 1.8, pushing the projected funding gap to 2.4% of GDP by 2070—1 percentage point worse than a year ago.
The warning lands on top of 422 billion euros in pension spending last year, equal to 14.1% of output and one of the highest shares in advanced economies.
The council said raising the retirement age is the only fix that does not hurt growth; higher immigration would only delay the strain by about a decade.
That finding is likely to intensify pension-reform politics before the April 2027 presidential election after the government suspended the contested 2023 plan to lift the legal retirement age from 62 to 64.