G-7 leaders meeting in Évian from June 15 are expected to stick to a minimal stance on trade imbalances, avoiding any direct demand that China or other Asian economies let their currencies rise.
That leaves unaddressed a key driver of the imbalance: China’s renminbi has fallen about 15% in real terms since the pandemic even as productivity rose, while state banks and renewed 2025 foreign-currency purchases have helped keep it weak.
China’s overall trade surplus has tripled since 2018, and tariff pressure has not reversed the trend because exporters increasingly route intermediate goods through neighboring countries for final assembly.
The spillover has widened across the region: the won sits near 2008-crisis lows, the Taiwan dollar has weakened about 5% amid a chip-export boom, and the yen is near early-1970s real levels.
At $1.5 trillion, East Asia’s trade surplus is now the world’s only large surplus, underscoring the risk that G-7 reluctance on exchange-rate coordination will leave global imbalances to keep growing.
Can Western industries survive another 'China shock' without a coordinated G-7 response to surging subsidized exports?
With China controlling critical supply chains, does the West still have enough leverage to challenge its currency policy?
As China masters lessons from the Plaza Accord, why does the G-7 seem to have forgotten them?
$1 Trillion Surplus and Rising Tensions: How East Asia’s Export Boom Is Reshaping Global Trade in 2026
Overview
Global trade imbalances remain a defining feature of the world economy, with East Asian economies—especially China—showing large and persistent trade surpluses. These surpluses are not only shaping global economic trends but also fueling geopolitical debates and prompting varied responses from major trading partners like the G7 nations. China’s record trade surplus is expected to continue, with exports projected to remain a key driver of its economy. As these imbalances persist, they influence international relations and policy decisions, highlighting the interconnectedness of trade, economic growth, and global politics.