Goldman Sachs Lifts Copper Forecast to $13,735 as Iran War Deepens 640,000-Tonne Deficit
Updated
Updated · Financial Times · Jun 11
Goldman Sachs Lifts Copper Forecast to $13,735 as Iran War Deepens 640,000-Tonne Deficit
3 articles · Updated · Financial Times · Jun 11
Summary
$13,735 a tonne is Goldman Sachs' new year-end copper target, after it widened its ex-US market deficit forecast this year to 640,000 tonnes from 60,000 tonnes.
640,000 tonnes reflects worsening mine disruptions at Grasberg and Kamoa-Kakula, while the Iran war has driven sulphur and sulphuric-acid costs sharply higher and tightened shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
125,000 tonnes of copper output in the DRC could be lost because of sulphur shortages, with another 200,000 tonnes in Chile at risk, adding to a market already expected to be in deficit.
Aluminium has also climbed to a four-year high as Middle East producers curbed output after strikes and struggled to secure alumina, extending the war's impact beyond oil into industrial metals.
Analysts say data-centre, grid and EV demand is still holding up, but warn the supply-driven rally could fade only if the conflict triggers a broader global downturn.
Are soaring metal prices a temporary shock or the permanent cost of our digital and green future?
With the Middle East disrupting supply, where will the next resource chokepoint emerge for global industry?
As AI and green energy compete for copper, will the energy transition be priced out of existence?
Copper at $14,000: Supply Deficit, Geopolitical Risks, and the Future of the Red Metal
Overview
Goldman Sachs has raised its copper price forecasts for 2026 and 2027, reflecting growing confidence among major investment banks in a tightening copper market. This optimism is driven by expectations of reduced output growth in key producing regions, which is anticipated to constrain global supply. Currently, copper prices are trading just below $14,000 per ton in London, having risen 10% year-to-date and outperforming gold. Goldman Sachs expects prices to stay near $13,600 per ton in the near term, with potential to climb higher as supply remains tight and demand continues to grow.