NOAA, NASA and Copernicus all ranked May 2026 as the world’s second-warmest May on record, behind only May 2024, with January-May already the fourth-warmest start to a year.
NOAA said 2026 now has about a 95% chance to finish among the four warmest years on record, and that risk could rise further with El Niño expected to emerge and persist through at least year-end.
More than 150 million hectares burned globally in January-May—the highest for that span in 15 years and 22% above the previous 2020 high—while U.S. burned area was the highest in at least a decade.
Cryosphere indicators also stayed weak: Arctic and Antarctic sea ice each posted their second-lowest May extent on record, and western U.S. May snow cover fell to 49% of average, the lowest in the 26-year satellite record.
In the contiguous United States, March-May was the second-warmest spring since 1895, extending record heat across multi-month periods and underscoring how broad the 2026 warmth has become.
The last 'super' El Niño cost trillions. Will the 2026 event be even more devastating?
As Western snowpack vanishes at a record pace, how will 40 million people avoid a water catastrophe?
May 2026: Second-Warmest May on Record Signals Escalating Global Climate Crisis
Overview
May 2026 was the second-warmest May ever recorded, with a global average surface air temperature of 15.81°C—well above pre-industrial levels. This record warmth continued a trend seen throughout early 2026, making January to May the fourth-hottest such period on record. The main drivers were long-term human-caused climate change and strong El Niño weather patterns, which also helped make 2024 the hottest year ever. Exceptionally high sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific signaled ongoing El Niño conditions, amplifying global heat and highlighting the combined impact of human activity and natural climate variability.