Updated
Updated · Reuters · Jun 8
U.S. 2-Year Yield Pulls Back From 15-Month High as 70% December Fed Hike Odds Hold
Updated
Updated · Reuters · Jun 8

U.S. 2-Year Yield Pulls Back From 15-Month High as 70% December Fed Hike Odds Hold

3 articles · Updated · Reuters · Jun 8

Summary

  • Two-year Treasury yields slipped 0.9 basis points to 4.153% on Monday after touching a 15-month high Friday, while the 10-year yield rose 1.4 basis points to 4.55%.
  • Friday's stronger-than-expected jobs report lifted fed funds futures to price a 70% chance of a Federal Reserve rate hike by December, easing worries that a softer labor market would block tighter policy.
  • Wednesday's CPI report is now the next test: economists expect core prices to cool to 0.3% month-on-month in May from 0.4%, but accelerate to 2.9% annually from 2.8%.
  • Oil-driven inflation fears tied to Iran war supply disruptions are keeping pressure on the outlook, even as some analysts argue the Fed still needs more evidence before resuming hikes.
  • This week's $119 billion Treasury supply — including $58 billion in three-year notes, $39 billion in 10-year notes and $22 billion in 30-year bonds — adds another near-term focus for the market.

Insights

As US debt surpasses 100% of GDP, who keeps buying Treasury bonds and for how much longer?
With a major war driving inflation, can the Federal Reserve's rate hikes truly stabilize the economy?