Updated

Updated · ESPN · Jun 10

ESPN's 19 Writers Back Spain or France for 2026 World Cup as Yamal, Mbappe Lead Awards Picks

Updated

Updated · ESPN · Jun 10

ESPN's 19 Writers Back Spain or France for 2026 World Cup as Yamal, Mbappe Lead Awards Picks

Q: Can European giants France and Spain finally break the curse and win a World Cup hosted in the Americas?

Yes. France and Spain look like the strongest candidates yet to end the long pattern of European teams failing to win a World Cup hosted in the Americas. The evidence is unusually strong. ESPN’s 19 experts gave Spain and France 16 of 19 title picks, with Spain appearing on every ballot. Betting markets and Opta’s model point the same way: Spain are generally slight favorites, with France close behind. One ESPN expert, Julien Laurens, went further, predicting not only that the European drought in the Americas will end, but that the final will feature two European teams. Spain’s case is built on balance, form and style. They arrive as Euro 2024 champions, are widely viewed as the world’s top team, and have elite midfield control through Rodri, Pedri and others, plus game-breaking width from Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams. The main caveat is Yamal’s hamstring recovery, which remains a risk even if he is expected to be available. France’s argument is depth and star power. Didier Deschamps still has one of the deepest squads in the field, led by Kylian Mbappé, the leading Golden Boot pick. France also showed strong form in spring matches, though injuries and some uncertainty at full-back slightly temper confidence. The obstacle is real: climate, travel and historical precedent have often favored teams from the Americas. Argentina and Brazil remain major threats. But on current evidence, Spain and France are the most credible teams to finally break that barrier.

3 articles · Updated · ESPN · Jun 10

Nineteen ESPN writers overwhelmingly picked Spain and France as the main title favorites, with the two nations taking 16 of 19 winner votes and Spain appearing on every ballot.
Lamine Yamal drew 13 votes for best young player and five for the Golden Ball, while Kylian Mbappe led Golden Boot picks with seven and added three Golden Ball selections.
Mexico vs. South Africa opens the 104-game tournament on Thursday, four years after Argentina beat France in the 2022 final; seven writers still see Argentina making another deep run, but none picked a repeat.
Mexico was the most common choice to go furthest among the three hosts, while most writers projected the United States to reach the round of 16 and flagged Japan, Norway and Ecuador as dangerous dark horses.