Goldman Sees Russia Growing 0.9% in 2026 as $92 Oil Lifts Surplus
Updated
Updated · Business Insider · Jun 10
Goldman Sees Russia Growing 0.9% in 2026 as $92 Oil Lifts Surplus
2 articles · Updated · Business Insider · Jun 10
Summary
Russia’s economy will expand just 0.9% in 2026, Goldman Sachs said, even as Brent crude near $92 a barrel gives the sanctions-hit oil exporter a sizable revenue boost.
Goldman expects Russia’s current-account surplus to nearly double to 3.2% of GDP from 1.7% in 2025, and says every $10 rise in export oil prices adds about $21 billion to budget revenue.
That windfall is unlikely to lift output because spare capacity is exhausted: unemployment is near record lows, productivity has weakened, and about 2 million workers are unavailable due to military service, casualties or emigration.
Goldman said policymakers are more likely to treat higher energy prices as an inflation risk than a growth engine, underscoring why Putin has already pressed officials for measures to revive growth and raise tax collection.