Russia’s Budget Deficit Hits 6.01 Trillion Rubles, Exceeding 2026 Target by 1.5 Times
Updated
Updated · Meduza · Jun 9
Russia’s Budget Deficit Hits 6.01 Trillion Rubles, Exceeding 2026 Target by 1.5 Times
1 articles · Updated · Meduza · Jun 9
Summary
6.01 trillion rubles — 2.6% of GDP — was Russia’s federal budget deficit in January-May, already 1.5 times the full-year target of 3.8 trillion rubles, despite May showing the first slowdown in deficit growth this year.
Higher oil prices and a VAT increase to 22% lifted revenue, but spending still rose 17% year on year in the first five months as war-related outlays kept pressure on the treasury.
16.8 trillion rubles, or nearly 40% of approved spending, is allocated to defense and security, and Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said 2026 spending will rise further without increasing borrowing above 5.5 trillion rubles.
0.4% is the Economic Development Ministry’s new GDP growth forecast, cut from 1.3%, as double-digit interest rates and military demand squeeze civilian industries while war-linked sectors keep expanding.
$50 per barrel is the lower Urals cutoff price officials are discussing for 2027, a move that would tighten future civilian spending as the war deepens Russia’s structural economic strains.
Having nearly emptied its national savings, what is Russia's ultimate economic plan for a post-war future?
Is a new Mideast war's oil boom a lifeline for Russia's economy, or just delaying an inevitable collapse?
With its war machine booming and civilian sector dying, which half of Russia's 'two-track economy' will break first?
Russia’s Budget Deficit Soars to RUB 6 Trillion in 2026: War, Sanctions, and Economic Challenges
Overview
Russia’s federal budget deficit soared to RUB 6.01 trillion (2.6% of GDP) in January-May 2026, marking the largest shortfall since at least 1996 and nearly doubling the previous year’s figure. This record deficit is driven by a sharp 17% rise in government spending, while revenues barely increased. The situation is worsened by ongoing international sanctions, especially those targeting Russia’s energy sector, which have cut into vital oil and gas revenues. As a result, Russia faces mounting fiscal challenges, with spending outpacing income and external pressures making recovery more difficult.