SportsLine Model Backs Over 5.5 in Stanley Cup Final Game 4 After 10,000 Simulations

Q: Can the Golden Knights overcome their near-collapse and take a commanding 3-1 series lead at home?

Yes. Vegas is well positioned to turn its Game 3 escape into a 3-1 series lead, but only if it cleans up the defensive lapses that nearly cost it. The Golden Knights already have the most important edge: they lead the series 2-1, are back at home, and still found a way to win after blowing a 4-0 third-period lead in Game 3. That matters. Teams that go up 3-1 in the Stanley Cup Final almost always finish the job, and Vegas has shown enough scoring depth to put Carolina under pressure again. Mitch Marner’s explosive Game 3, Shea Theodore’s double-overtime winner, and strong production from players such as Brett Howden, Tomas Hertl and Pavel Dorofeyev give Vegas multiple ways to score. Carolina, though, remains a serious threat. The Hurricanes have been one of the NHL’s best 5-on-5 teams all postseason, they have responded well to adversity, and they are turning to Brandon Bussi after his strong relief appearance in Game 3. Bussi stopped 19 of 20 shots, including a penalty shot, and his insertion gives Carolina a potential spark after Frederik Andersen’s struggles. The matchup still slightly favors Vegas because of home ice, proven finishing ability, and Carolina’s goaltending uncertainty. But the Golden Knights cannot assume momentum alone will carry them. If they manage the puck better and avoid the kind of third-period unraveling seen in Game 3, they have a strong chance to seize a commanding 3-1 lead. If not, Carolina has shown it can punish every mistake.

Q: Can an undrafted rookie goalie lead the Hurricanes to a crucial road win in the Stanley Cup Final?

Yes. Brandon Bussi has shown he can give Carolina a real chance to win Game 4 on the road, though it remains a major test. The key fact is that Bussi is now set to start after Frederik Andersen struggled in the Final and will not dress. In relief in Game 3, Bussi stopped 19 of 20 shots, including a penalty shot from Mitch Marner, and helped stabilize Carolina as it rallied from 4-0 down to force double overtime. That performance is the clearest evidence that he is capable of handling the moment. There is also a broader case for confidence. Bussi, an undrafted goalie who joined Carolina after a waiver claim, has risen quickly this season and set a record for most wins through a goalie’s first 25 NHL games. Coach Rod Brind’Amour has said he has consistently seized his opportunities, and teammates have praised his aggressive style and composure. The matchup still favors caution. Vegas leads the series 2-1, is at home, and has generated offense throughout a chaotic, high-scoring Final. Carolina also needs to defend better in front of Bussi after allowing too many dangerous chances in Game 3. This is not a spot where a goalie wins alone. But the Hurricanes have strong indicators behind him: they were a 113-point team, have been one of the playoffs’ best 5-on-5 clubs, and own an excellent road record. If Carolina tightens up defensively, Bussi has already shown enough to suggest he can be the difference in a crucial road win.

3 articles · Updated · CBS Sports · Jun 9

10,000 simulations led SportsLine's model to back the over on 5.5 goals for Tuesday's Stanley Cup Final Game 4 between Carolina and Vegas.
The projection calls for 6.2 combined goals, with Seth Jarvis forecast for 0.41 goals and Pavel Dorofeyev for 0.46 as both teams carry recent over trends into the matchup.
Vegas enters at T-Mobile Arena with a 2-1 series lead after a 5-4 double-overtime win in Game 3, while Carolina is a slight -114 favorite to even the best-of-seven series.
Carolina still has not named a starting goalie after Brandon Bussi replaced Frederik Andersen in Game 3, adding uncertainty to a matchup the model expects to be high scoring.

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After a chaotic Game 3, will the Stanley Cup Final see another high-scoring overtime thriller tonight?

Can the Golden Knights overcome their near-collapse and take a commanding 3-1 series lead at home?

Can an undrafted rookie goalie lead the Hurricanes to a crucial road win in the Stanley Cup Final?

SportsLine Model Backs Over 5.5 in Stanley Cup Final Game 4 After 10,000 Simulations

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