Updated

Updated · The New York Times · Jun 8

Lindsey Graham Enters South Carolina Primary With Trump Backing, Seeking 50% to Avoid Runoff

Updated

Updated · The New York Times · Jun 8

Lindsey Graham Enters South Carolina Primary With Trump Backing, Seeking 50% to Avoid Runoff

Q: Despite a presidential endorsement, could foreign policy views force a surprise runoff in tomorrow's South Carolina primary?

Yes, but it still looks unlikely. Lindsey Graham enters South Carolina’s Republican Senate primary with major advantages: President Donald Trump’s endorsement, a large fundraising edge, and a divided field of five challengers. Recent polling generally puts him around or just above the 50% mark needed to avoid a runoff, with surveys ranging from the mid-40s to low-50s. That means the race is not out of danger if late movement trims his support. The main reason a runoff remains possible is Graham’s foreign-policy profile. He has long been one of the party’s most hawkish voices, and challengers such as Mark Lynch have tried to turn that into a liability by arguing he is too focused on overseas conflicts, especially his strong support for the U.S.-Israel war against Iran. Some polling and campaign analysis suggest that issue has created discontent among a slice of Republican primary voters and could keep him below a majority. Still, the evidence points to Graham as the clear favorite to win outright. Trump’s backing remains powerful in South Carolina, and Graham has spent heavily to reinforce his standing. His opponents are splitting the anti-incumbent vote, which makes it harder for any one challenger to force a second round. So foreign policy views are the clearest opening for a surprise runoff, but based on the available polling and the fragmented opposition, they do not appear strong enough at this point to make a runoff the most likely outcome.

3 articles · Updated · The New York Times · Jun 8

Tuesday’s South Carolina Republican primary gives Lindsey Graham a chance to win outright if he clears the 50% threshold, avoiding a runoff against a challenger from the right.
Trump’s endorsement has strengthened Graham’s position, with the president calling him “fantastic” after years of public hostility between the two men.
That shift is central to Graham’s campaign: he once branded Trump a “demagogue” and worse, while Trump called Graham “a disgrace” and “one of the dumbest human beings.”
The alliance now matters beyond South Carolina because Trump has recently helped unseat Republican senators he judged insufficiently loyal, including John Cornyn and Bill Cassidy.