Updated

Updated · HousingWire · Jun 6

U.S. Pending Home Sales Rise to 75,935 as Purchase Applications Climb 7% Despite 6.66% Rates

Updated

Updated · HousingWire · Jun 6

U.S. Pending Home Sales Rise to 75,935 as Purchase Applications Climb 7% Despite 6.66% Rates

Q: A key financial buffer is shielding homebuyers from 7% mortgage rates. What is it, and how long can it last?

The buffer is the unusually tight **mortgage spread** — the gap between the 30-year fixed mortgage rate and the 10-year Treasury yield. In early June, that spread was about **2.01%**, briefly even **1.93%**, near multiyear lows. That matters because with the 10-year yield where it is, a wider spread like those seen in 2023-24 would likely have pushed mortgage rates **above 7%**. Instead, average 30-year rates have stayed in the **mid-6% range**, around **6.37% to 6.48%**. This spread has tightened because volatility has eased from prior extremes and investor demand for mortgage-backed securities has improved. That has given buyers a meaningful cushion even as strong labor data, inflation worries and Middle East tensions have kept broader rate pressure elevated. How long it lasts depends on whether those supportive conditions hold. If inflation stays sticky, oil prices remain high, or markets become more volatile, investors could demand a wider spread again, quickly lifting mortgage rates. A more hawkish Federal Reserve or weaker demand for mortgage-backed securities would have the same effect. For now, the cushion looks intact through the near term, and many forecasters expect mortgage rates to remain **above 6% but below 7%** for the rest of 2026. But it is not a permanent shield: if spreads revert toward the stressed levels of recent years, 7% mortgages could return relatively quickly.

1 articles · Updated · HousingWire · Jun 6

Weekly pending home sales rose to 75,935 from 69,636 a year earlier, while purchase applications were up 7% year over year even after a 3% weekly dip.
Memorial Day timing drove much of the rebound, but demand has stayed positive through 2026 despite mortgage rates near yearly highs and a level that tends to pressure activity above 6.64%.
Mortgage spreads helped cushion the market: rates were 6.66% last week, versus an estimated 7.76% under the worst 2023 spread conditions.
Inventory also snapped back to 806,198 from 795,921, still slightly below last year's 808,524, while new listings increased to 76,766 from 73,436.
Price cuts remained relatively contained at 37.53% versus 39% a year ago, though hotter inflation and higher oil prices could test housing resilience by pushing bond yields and mortgage rates higher.