Updated
Updated · continuumeconomics.com · Jun 5
Canada May CPI Seen Rising 0.8% as Core Inflation Holds Near 2%
Updated
Updated · continuumeconomics.com · Jun 5

Canada May CPI Seen Rising 0.8% as Core Inflation Holds Near 2%

1 articles · Updated · continuumeconomics.com · Jun 5

Summary

  • 0.8% monthly CPI growth is forecast for Canada in May, with analysts expecting a 0.6% rise excluding food and energy ahead of the June 22 release.
  • Energy is expected to drive most of the headline increase, while ex-food-and-energy prices rebound from flat April and a 0.1% March decline, helped by travel tours and air fares.
  • Core inflation gauges are seen mostly steady to softer: CPI-Median at 2.1%, CPI-Trim edging to 1.95% from 2.0%, and CPI-Common slipping to 2.4% from 2.5%.
  • April's annual CPI jump to 2.8% from 2.4% was largely attributed to the carbon-tax repeal dropping out of the comparison base, while underlying inflation slowed.
  • A return to economic growth in Q2 after two slight quarterly contractions could ease deflationary pressure, but the Bank of Canada's preferred core measures still point to contained inflation.

Insights

As energy costs surge, will Canada's central bank choose to fight inflation or protect a fragile economic recovery?
While oil provinces boom, are consumers in Central Canada facing an unavoidable cost-of-living crisis this year?
With US trade tensions simmering, is Canada's biggest economic threat foreign policy or its own domestic inflation?