Author Predicts Spain to Beat Argentina 2-1 in 2026 World Cup Final

3 articles · Updated · ESPN · Jun 5

Spain is forecast to win the 2026 World Cup 2-1 over Argentina after the author predicted 103 of the tournament’s 104 matches, skipping only the third-place game.
104 matches will be played in the expanded 48-team tournament, and the bracket projection has Spain beating France on penalties in the semifinals while Argentina edges Norway 1-0.
Group picks include several upsets and tight races: Morocco tops Brazil’s group, Japan wins Group F, New Zealand advances from Group G, and Portugal is projected to finish last in Group K.
Host nations get a lift in the forecast, with Mexico winning Group A, Canada finishing second in Group B on seven points, and the United States topping a balanced Group D with four points.
The predictions use DTAI Analytics Lab probabilities as a baseline but depart from them to identify likely surprises in a tournament whose new format creates 495 round-of-32 permutations.