Analyst Rafael Sees Bitcoin Bottom at $46,000-$54,000 as Price Slides 50% From Peak
Updated
Updated · TradingView · Jun 5
Analyst Rafael Sees Bitcoin Bottom at $46,000-$54,000 as Price Slides 50% From Peak
3 articles · Updated · TradingView · Jun 5
Summary
Bitcoin’s likely higher bottom zone sits between $46,000 and $54,000, analyst Rafael said, citing CVDD at about $46,200 after the token’s latest selloff pushed it into a deeper corrective phase.
A break below the median holder’s breakeven level for the first time since May 2022 and a drop under the 200-week moving average underpin that call, with past bottoms typically forming around 1.05x-1.18x CVDD.
Rafael’s worst-case scenario puts Bitcoin at $35,000-$40,000, a deeper band the asset has visited on less than 3% of trading days in this cycle; related on-chain markers include realized price near $54,000 and delta price near $35,000.
Bitcoin traded at $60,537 at press time, down 4.7% in 24 hours and 16% over the past week, after failing to clear $82,000 in early May and falling roughly 50% from its all-time high.
For a bullish recovery signal, Bitcoin would need to reclaim $75,000-$78,000, where the short-term holder cost basis, true market mean and 200-day moving average converge.