OECD Cuts 2026 Global Growth to 2.8% as Hormuz Shock Lifts Energy Prices 24%
Updated
Updated · Xinhua · Jun 7
OECD Cuts 2026 Global Growth to 2.8% as Hormuz Shock Lifts Energy Prices 24%
3 articles · Updated · Xinhua · Jun 7
Summary
OECD and other institutions lowered global growth forecasts, warning the nearly 100-day Middle East conflict is becoming a sustained drag on output, inflation and supply chains rather than a brief oil-price shock.
The Strait of Hormuz blockage has removed 12.8 million barrels a day of oil supply since February, which the IEA called the biggest disruption in global oil-market history; it still sees 2026 supply averaging 3.9 million bpd lower.
The World Bank now expects global energy prices to rise 24% in 2026 and overall commodity prices 16%, while the IMF says global inflation would reach 4.4% even under a short-conflict scenario.
OECD sees global growth slowing from 3.4% in 2025 to 2.8% in 2026, with a deeper drop to 2.1% if Gulf disruptions persist; the IMF and UN also cut forecasts to 3.1% and 2.5%.
Developing economies face the heaviest hit as inflation is projected at 5.1% in 2026, while governments worldwide have less room to cushion households and businesses after years of high rates and pandemic-era strain.