Schmigadoon! Leads Tony Best Musical Race With Over 50% Odds
Updated
Updated · Hollywood Reporter · Jun 2
Schmigadoon! Leads Tony Best Musical Race With Over 50% Odds
3 articles · Updated · Hollywood Reporter · Jun 2
Summary
Schmigadoon! enters the Tony Awards as the best musical frontrunner, with Ben Zauzmer’s model giving it slightly better than a 50-50 chance in an unusually open three-show race.
The model combines nominations, precursor awards, critic forecasts and betting markets, and still leaves The Lost Boys and Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York) in double digits.
Ragtime emerges as the strongest best revival of a musical pick and could also sweep leading musical acting, with Joshua Henry rated the most likely winner among all 41 acting nominees and Caissie Levy also above 50%.
Liberation holds a roughly 3-in-5 chance in best play, while Death of a Salesman is the clearest best-show favorite overall and could win a record-tying or record-setting fourth Tony as a play revival.
Several races remain razor-thin, including featured actor in a musical, where André De Shields carries only a 3.6-point edge, underscoring how fragmented this year’s Tony field looks beyond the top calls.