Updated · European Council on Foreign Relations · Jun 5
ECFR Urges Europe to Build 3-Pillar Defense Plan Within 5-7 Years
Updated
Updated · European Council on Foreign Relations · Jun 5
ECFR Urges Europe to Build 3-Pillar Defense Plan Within 5-7 Years
2 articles · Updated · European Council on Foreign Relations · Jun 5
Summary
A new ECFR paper says Europe must be ready to defend itself with little or no US help, proposing a three-part model built around NATO command structures, EU funding and solidarity, and smaller coalitions for rapid action.
The report argues the risk is immediate: Russia remains the main military threat, while US commitment under Donald Trump looks unreliable despite roughly 75,000 American troops still stationed in Europe.
Under the plan, Europeans would shift NATO toward European-led regional commands, pre-delegate some crisis authority, and build combat-ready forces, munitions stocks, drones, air defenses and training capacity able to operate without waiting for full Article 5 consensus.
The EU would underpin that system with political legitimacy, emergency procurement and economic stabilization tools, including the SAFE loan mechanism worth €150 billion and a proposed 2028-2034 budget that would raise defense and space spending to €131 billion.
ECFR says Europe should avoid creating a new superstructure or copying the US model, instead using the next 5 to 7 years to strengthen its own industry, reduce dependence on American systems and make deterrence credible even if Washington steps back.
As Europe rearms, will its new military power strengthen or fracture its long-standing alliance with the US?
With plans for shared nuclear deterrence, how will Europe manage the ultimate weapon without American oversight?
Can Europe's fragmented industries unite to build a continental defense before the 2030s deadline?
Securing Europe’s Future: The 2030 Defense Plan and the Urgency of Strategic Autonomy
Overview
In June 2026, the European Council on Foreign Relations called for Europe to urgently rethink and strengthen its defense, responding to a rapidly worsening security environment marked by an expansionist Russia and reduced American security guarantees. The ECFR proposed a robust, three-pillar defense plan to be developed within five to seven years, emphasizing the need for immediate action and sustained investment. This strategy urges Europeans to focus on clear priorities, address existing capability gaps, and adopt a pragmatic, European-led approach to defense readiness, ensuring the continent is better prepared for future threats and organizational challenges.