Updated
Updated · Convera · Jun 5
Dollar Holds Firm Before 87,000 US Jobs Test as Oil and Inflation Fears Lift Yields
Updated
Updated · Convera · Jun 5

Dollar Holds Firm Before 87,000 US Jobs Test as Oil and Inflation Fears Lift Yields

3 articles · Updated · Convera · Jun 5

Summary

  • 87,000 is the Bloomberg consensus for May nonfarm payrolls, with the dollar entering the release on firm footing after a week of support from higher oil prices, rising Treasury yields and solid US data.
  • 122,000 ADP job gains in May and 7.618 million JOLTS openings point to a still-constructive labor market, raising the chance that an upside payrolls surprise could push the dollar higher again.
  • 54.5 on the ISM services index and 71.3 on prices paid show demand holding up even as cost pressures intensify, reinforcing a more hawkish market view on the Fed.
  • 4.47% on the 10-year Treasury yield—more than 10 basis points above its level at April payrolls—gives room for a stronger dollar reaction if jobs beat expectations.
  • EUR/USD remains trapped around 1.16-1.1650 and GBP/USD above 1.34, with any broader dollar move still likely to hinge on payrolls and whether Middle East tensions keep oil elevated.

Insights

Amidst soaring inflation and a new Fed chair, what drastic policy shifts could redefine the US economy's future?
As nations stockpile gold, is the US dollar's reign as the world's top reserve currency nearing its end?
With the Strait of Hormuz crippled, how are global supply chains being permanently redrawn beyond just oil?