Biofuel Demand Jumps Nearly 33% as $100 Oil Threatens Global Food Crisis
Updated
Updated · The Guardian · Jun 5
Biofuel Demand Jumps Nearly 33% as $100 Oil Threatens Global Food Crisis
3 articles · Updated · The Guardian · Jun 5
Summary
Nearly one-third higher biofuel demand this year could intensify food inflation, with governments boosting blending mandates after oil surged to almost $100 a barrel following attacks on Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
T&E estimates demand could rise 70% by 2030 if oil supplies stay constrained, even though biofuels now provide only about 4% of global transport energy and would reach roughly 6% under current expansion plans.
Fertiliser shortages tied to the war are already lifting staple-food costs, and biofuels deepen that strain because about 1 in 20 tonnes of fertiliser globally goes to fuel crops—rising to 10% in the US and 20% in Indonesia.
Past price shocks show the risk: the FAO estimated biofuels drove 40% to 70% of the 2007-08 rise in maize and soy prices, while the US already sees food prices climbing 2.2% to 4.7% this year.
T&E argues electrification is a safer response to the oil shock, saying crop-based biofuels emit about 16% more CO2 than fossil fuels and that solar on 3% of current biofuel land could match their energy output.
As conflict drives up fuel prices, is turning food into fuel creating an even bigger global hunger crisis?
Why expand land-hungry biofuels when cleaner energy like solar could power a third of all cars with a fraction of the land?
Biofuel Boom, Food Bust: The 2026 Global Crisis Linking Energy, Agriculture, and Humanitarian Risk
Overview
In 2026, the ongoing Iran conflict creates major geopolitical turmoil, triggering a chain reaction across global energy and agricultural markets. This crisis, following earlier shocks like COVID-19, severely damages Middle East refining capacity and causes a surge in fossil fuel prices. As countries rush to update energy regulations, tight jet fuel supplies and rising costs push governments to rapidly expand biofuel use. However, this shift intensifies competition for agricultural feedstocks, raising food prices and exposing deep vulnerabilities in fertilizer and food systems. The report highlights how these interconnected shocks threaten both energy security and global food stability.