BofA Says 6 Million Annual Starts Needed to Ease U.S. Housing Crisis
Updated
Updated · Fortune · Jun 4
BofA Says 6 Million Annual Starts Needed to Ease U.S. Housing Crisis
2 articles · Updated · Fortune · Jun 4
Summary
Bank of America Research says the affordability crisis stems chiefly from decades of underbuilding, not primarily from mortgage rates, Wall Street landlords or nonbank lenders.
About 6 million annual housing starts would have been needed to absorb the post-2020 demand surge—a 300% increase—but supply stayed far less responsive, helping drive home prices up more than 40% in roughly 18 months.
Existing-home sales are hovering near 4 million a year, a roughly 40-year low on a population-adjusted basis, as owners stay locked into cheap mortgages and freeze the resale market for what BofA says could be six to eight years.
Mortgage rates may ease only gradually from about 6.5% toward 6% by 2027, leaving elevated prices, taxes and insurance to keep monthly payments restrictive even as borrowing costs drift lower.
Local zoning rules and NIMBY resistance remain the main bottleneck, BofA says, while federal housing efforts are likely to deliver only incremental gains because the politically costly supply fixes are still largely off the table.
Can America build its way out of the housing crisis without erasing neighborhood character?
If local politics stall construction, can technology provide a backdoor solution to the affordability crisis?
If zoning has discriminatory roots, what does an equitable modern housing solution truly require?
The 6 Million Home Challenge: Why the U.S. Must Triple Housing Starts to Solve Its Affordability Crisis
Overview
Bank of America Global Research’s 2026 report highlights a severe disconnect between the current pace of U.S. housing construction and the nation’s growing demand. The report calls for 6 million new homes to be built annually—a 300% increase over recent levels—to address the escalating housing crisis. This urgent need is driven by post-2020 shifts, including remote work and migration patterns, which have fueled demand. However, with current annual housing starts hovering around 1.4 to 1.5 million, the gap remains vast. Without a dramatic surge in building, affordability will worsen and the crisis will persist.