Updated
Updated · Bloomberg · Jun 4
Morgan Stanley Says Fed Would Look Through Iran War in Any 2026 Rate Hike
Updated
Updated · Bloomberg · Jun 4

Morgan Stanley Says Fed Would Look Through Iran War in Any 2026 Rate Hike

3 articles · Updated · Bloomberg · Jun 4

Summary

  • Andrew Sheets said the Federal Reserve would probably discount Iran war-driven price effects if officials consider raising rates later in 2026.
  • Morgan Stanley sees the conflict as primarily a growth shock, not an inflation shock, meaning it is unlikely to be the factor that pushes policymakers toward a hike.
  • That view suggests any Fed tightening this year would need to be driven by broader underlying inflation or domestic economic data rather than war-related energy moves.

Insights

With war driving global inflation, is the Federal Reserve's playbook for economic shocks now broken?
Is the Fed misdiagnosing a war-fueled inflation crisis as a simple 'growth shock'?