Polymarket, Kalshi Hit $25 Billion April Volume as Prediction Trading Jumps 10-Fold
Updated
Updated · The New York Times · May 26
Polymarket, Kalshi Hit $25 Billion April Volume as Prediction Trading Jumps 10-Fold
3 articles · Updated · The New York Times · May 26
Summary
$25 billion in April trading on Polymarket and Kalshi marked a tenfold jump from a year earlier, signaling rapid mainstream growth in prediction markets.
Nearly 40% of American men ages 18 to 34 have made a trade, while the platforms have expanded through media partnerships with CNN, CNBC, Fox News, The Associated Press and others.
That growth follows a regulatory reversal: Kalshi won a 2024 court fight over election contracts, and Polymarket later bought a federally licensed exchange and clearinghouse to regain U.S. approval.
Sports now generate about 70% of Kalshi revenue, but both platforms increasingly let users trade on politics, weather, crypto prices and other real-world events.
With insider trading on the rise, can these platforms ever be truly safe for the average person?
As federal and state regulators clash, could prediction markets upend all U.S. sports betting laws?
Are prediction markets a revolutionary forecasting tool or just a new high-tech casino for insiders?
The $10 Billion Boom: How Prediction Markets Are Reshaping Finance Amid Regulatory Showdowns (2025-2026)
Overview
From mid-2025 to early 2026, prediction markets experienced explosive growth, with monthly trading volumes reaching tens of billions. This surge transformed them from a niche interest into a major financial landscape, as they began to reshape how uncertainty is quantified and priced. While demand now rivals that of established asset classes, liquidity remains limited, highlighting the need for deeper markets to support larger trades. The strongest activity centers on US politics and global events, reflecting a shift in contract focus. Overall, prediction markets are rapidly evolving, but still face challenges in liquidity and market maturity.