Prediction Markets See 66% Odds Bitcoin Falls Below $55,000 as ETF Outflows Hit $3.4 Billion
Updated
Updated · CoinDesk · Jun 3
Prediction Markets See 66% Odds Bitcoin Falls Below $55,000 as ETF Outflows Hit $3.4 Billion
3 articles · Updated · CoinDesk · Jun 3
Summary
Kalshi and Polymarket traders now price about a 66%-67% chance that bitcoin drops below $55,000 this year, with roughly 50% odds of sub-$50,000 and a 31% chance of under $40,000.
$3.4 billion has flowed out of U.S.-listed bitcoin ETFs since May—$2.4 billion last month and another $1 billion in June's first two trading days—signaling weakening institutional demand as bitcoin slid toward $65,000.
AI stocks are also pulling investor attention away from bitcoin, with K33 Research saying many see the opportunity cost of holding BTC as too high while AI-linked equities keep posting outsized gains.
Gold has strengthened bitcoin's relative underperformance case: Polymarket gives BTC only a 30% chance of beating gold in 2026, after gold rose 33% over the past year while bitcoin fell about 37%.
Stablecoins such as USDT and USDC are still gaining share during the selloff, suggesting capital is staying inside crypto and waiting in cash-like tokens rather than exiting the sector outright.