Morningstar put SpaceX's fair value at $780 billion ahead of its Nasdaq debut, arguing the stock is significantly overvalued and not an attractive entry point for retail investors.
A $1.75 trillion IPO valuation would imply about 67 times sales, while Morningstar said uncertainty around xAI profitability and an indeterminate economic moat create a material risk of value destruction.
SpaceX posted a $4.28 billion net loss in the latest quarter after losing $4.94 billion in 2025; Starlink generated $3.26 billion in revenue and was the company's only profitable segment.
The S-1 warned SpaceX has a history of net losses, may never achieve profitability, and expects years of heavy capital spending before AI products and services turn profitable.
Morningstar still expects a small float, strong AI-infrastructure demand and likely Nasdaq 100 inclusion within 15 trading days to support the shares initially, potentially giving long-term investors a better later entry.
Is SpaceX's $1.75T IPO a visionary bet on orbital AI or history's most overvalued gamble on an unproven dream?
Will fast-track Nasdaq 100 inclusion create a price surge that traps unwary retail investors when initial hype fades?
SpaceX’s $780B IPO: Starlink’s Revenue Boom, AI Bets, and the Governance Dilemma
Overview
SpaceX is preparing for a highly anticipated IPO that has sparked both excitement and caution in the market. While major investment banks are backing the offering and enthusiasm is high, some analysts warn that the IPO may be overvalued and advise investors to be careful. The share sale is expected to have a low float, which could lead to a strong debut, but Morningstar and others suggest this may not be the best entry point for retail investors. This divide highlights the tension between market buzz and concerns about valuation and timing.