Oil Holds Near $95 as Supply Buffers Mask Risk of $150 Spike
Updated
Updated · Semafor · Jun 2
Oil Holds Near $95 as Supply Buffers Mask Risk of $150 Spike
3 articles · Updated · Semafor · Jun 2
Summary
$95-a-barrel oil slipped Tuesday after Trump said US-Iran talks were still alive, but prices remain about 30% above pre-war levels despite a fourth month of severe supply disruption.
Saudi and UAE pipeline rerouting, strategic reserve releases, record US exports, temporary waivers on sanctioned crude and weaker buying—especially from China—have offset much of the lost Strait of Hormuz flow.
Brookings estimates those buffers left only a 3.3 million-barrel-per-day shortfall in May, but the gap could widen to 6.4 million bpd by July as stopgaps fade faster than supply can recover.
Tehran has said restoring pre-war strait flows would take at least 30 days after any ceasefire, with demining, tanker availability, insurer confidence and drone risks threatening further delays.
Analysts at Brookings, JPMorgan and ExxonMobil say that leaves $150 oil firmly possible, even as demand destruction has already cut global consumption by at least 4.3 million bpd.
With a massive oil deficit looming, what hidden trigger could send prices soaring past $150 by July?
As diplomacy stalls, can the world's top oil artery reopen without escalating into a full-scale regional war?
Beyond oil, how is the Hormuz blockade disrupting global food supplies and the green energy transition?
2026 Hormuz Blockade: Oil Nears $100, Global Supply Chains Fracture, and Economic Fallout Looms
Overview
In early June 2026, the global energy market faces a major crisis as the ongoing disruption and closure of the Strait of Hormuz severely restricts oil shipments. This has led to a sharp surge in crude oil prices, with Brent crude reaching $97 a barrel, well above pre-war levels. The uncertainty over the Strait’s reopening continues to drive volatility and upward pressure in global oil markets. Diplomatic negotiations are underway to extend a ceasefire and restore shipping, but the persistent blockade remains the immediate cause of market instability and economic risk worldwide.