Iran May Cap Hormuz Oil Flows at 60%-70% of Prewar Levels as Control Hardens
Updated
Updated · CNBC · May 30
Iran May Cap Hormuz Oil Flows at 60%-70% of Prewar Levels as Control Hardens
3 articles · Updated · CNBC · May 30
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz may recover only to 60%-70% of prewar volumes, with analysts warning Iran’s wartime grip could leave exports permanently below past norms.
Western shipowners may still avoid the route even after a deal because sailing under Iran’s de facto control could require coordination with the Revolutionary Guard and raise sanctions, mine and renewed-war risks.
Hormuz handled about 20% of global oil and LNG before the war, and while Saudi and UAE pipelines are diverting millions of barrels a day, they cannot fully replace the chokepoint.
The Red Sea offers a cautionary precedent: daily Bab el-Mandeb traffic fell from 75 ships to 31 in early 2024 and has still not returned to normal more than two years later.
That leaves energy markets facing a more durable shift in which access through Hormuz depends increasingly on political alignment, even as Gulf states build new bypass pipelines.
With Gulf nations building bypass pipelines, is the era of Hormuz as the world's top energy artery permanently over?
As Iran asserts control over Hormuz, are we witnessing the end of free navigation in critical global seaways?
Beyond oil prices, how will the blockade of one-third of the world's fertilizer supply reshape global food security?
2026 Strait of Hormuz Crisis: Record Oil Supply Disruption and the Global Economic Aftershock
Overview
In June 2026, a strict United States blockade physically closed the Strait of Hormuz, cutting off Iran’s oil exports and causing a dramatic collapse in its oil sector. Iran’s usual clandestine shipping routes to China were blocked, leaving millions of barrels stranded at sea and creating a storage crisis as facilities filled up. This forced Iran to cap oil production, triggering a global energy shock with soaring prices and severe impacts on economies worldwide. The crisis exposed the vulnerability of global energy supply chains and accelerated a shift toward renewable energy and new strategies for energy security.