Loeb Paper Casts 1998 KY26 as 1988 Soviet Phobos 1 Probe Ahead of Hayabusa2's 2031 Flyby
Updated
Updated · Futurism · Jun 2
Loeb Paper Casts 1998 KY26 as 1988 Soviet Phobos 1 Probe Ahead of Hayabusa2's 2031 Flyby
3 articles · Updated · Futurism · Jun 2
Avi Loeb and colleagues argue in an unpublished paper that near-Earth object 1998 KY26 may be the failed Soviet Phobos 1 spacecraft, not a natural asteroid or dark comet.
1988's Phobos 1 lost contact two months after launch because of a faulty command, and the paper says its thruster history could have left it in an orbit statistically compatible with 1998 KY26.
The team also points to a similar size and elongated shape, though the report notes the idea remains highly speculative given the vastness of space and the lack of direct evidence.
Hayabusa2 is due to reach 1998 KY26 in July 2031, and those observations could settle the object's origin, even if the asteroid's extremely fast spin makes close operations difficult.
Loeb says a technological origin would widen the search framework for unusual objects and could bolster his disputed view that 2017 interstellar visitor 'Oumuamua may also have been artificial.