Super El Niño Could Lift US Hantavirus Risk This Summer as NOAA Sees 82% Emergence Odds
Updated
Updated · Newsweek · Jun 1
Super El Niño Could Lift US Hantavirus Risk This Summer as NOAA Sees 82% Emergence Odds
3 articles · Updated · Newsweek · Jun 1
US experts warned a potential super El Niño could raise hantavirus infections this summer, especially in the Southwest where deer mice carry the Sin Nombre strain.
NOAA earlier put the odds of El Niño emerging between May and July at 82%, with stronger rain and warmer conditions potentially boosting vegetation, rodent survival and breeding.
Researchers tied similar environmental dynamics to the 1993 Four Corners outbreak that led the CDC to begin national hantavirus surveillance and identify hantavirus pulmonary syndrome.
Sin Nombre spreads through infected rodent urine, droppings or saliva—not person to person—and HPS can turn from flu-like symptoms to severe respiratory failure, with fatality rates as high as 60%.
Health officials said US cases remain rare and largely preventable if people seal homes, ventilate enclosed spaces and disinfect droppings instead of sweeping or vacuuming them.
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Overview
In 2026, a major El Niño event is expected to develop, with experts predicting an 82% chance of its arrival between May and July. El Niño typically peaks in winter, but its environmental effects can last for months, raising immediate public health concerns. One key issue is the potential rise in hantavirus cases across the United States, as changes in climate may boost deer mouse populations—the main carriers of the virus. While the full impact is still being studied, hantavirus remains a persistent threat, highlighting the need for ongoing monitoring and public health vigilance during and after this climatic shift.