Brent Holds Near $96 as Hormuz Closure Threatens 3 More Months of Oil Tightness
Updated
Updated · Mitrade · Jun 2
Brent Holds Near $96 as Hormuz Closure Threatens 3 More Months of Oil Tightness
2 articles · Updated · Mitrade · Jun 2
Summary
$96 Brent futures still price a relatively optimistic Iran-war scenario, Rabobank said, even after retreating from a recent $108 peak.
Several months of disruption in the Strait of Hormuz have already tightened oil markets, and Rabobank now assumes the waterway stays out of normal operation for up to three more months.
That prolonged closure risks physical shortages, higher input costs and broader supply-chain strain, with early inflation effects already starting to appear.
Even an extended US-Iran ceasefire would only reduce near-term tail risks, the bank said, because unresolved conflict could leave Hormuz constrained and make any later flare-up hit depleted fuel supplies.
Why are markets betting on peace while the world faces its biggest oil shock?
Could the Iran conflict unintentionally fast-track the world’s transition to green energy?
With Hormuz closed, is America's era of ensuring global free trade over?
Strait of Hormuz Closure 2026: Global Oil Shock, Supply Chain Disruption, and Humanitarian Fallout
Overview
In early June 2026, a recent conflict led Iran to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz, fundamentally changing maritime passage through this vital energy chokepoint. Iran introduced a new route within its territorial waters, requiring all vessels to get approval from Tehran and use a designated lane. These new rules brought immediate and significant disruptions to global energy flows and shipping, as well as increased financial burdens and operational complexities for international shipping. The imposition of tolls, sometimes reaching millions of dollars for oil tankers, quickly impacted the cost of transporting crude oil and LNG worldwide.