NOAA Sees 55% Chance of Below-Normal Atlantic Hurricane Season as El Nino Suppresses Storms
Updated
Updated · Al Jazeera English · Jun 1
NOAA Sees 55% Chance of Below-Normal Atlantic Hurricane Season as El Nino Suppresses Storms
6 articles · Updated · Al Jazeera English · Jun 1
The Atlantic season opened June 1 with NOAA forecasting a quieter-than-usual period through Nov. 30, including a 55% chance of below-normal activity, 35% near-normal and 10% above-normal.
El Nino is driving that outlook by warming the central and eastern Pacific, weakening or reversing trade winds and historically cutting Atlantic hurricane days by about 60% while reducing storm intensity.
An average Atlantic season produces 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes, but NOAA warned the basin can still deliver destructive landfalls because one storm can make a season severe.
Storm impacts shift globally during El Nino: activity tends to rise near Hawaii, fall around Australia, and move eastward in the South Pacific and northwest Pacific rather than disappearing.
As El Niño clashes with record ocean heat, will the 2026 hurricane season be quiet or catastrophically deceptive?
The Atlantic may be quiet, but is a 'Super' El Niño about to disrupt global food, energy, and trade?
2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast: Below-Normal Activity Expected Due to Super El Niño, But Major Risks Remain
Overview
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season began on June 1 and will run through November 30, starting off quietly with no tropical cyclones reported in early June. Forecasts from NOAA and Colorado State University predict below-normal activity this year, expecting around five hurricanes—matching last season’s total. This outlook is mainly due to the anticipated development of a strong El Niño, which typically suppresses Atlantic hurricane formation by increasing wind shear and atmospheric stability. Despite the quieter forecast, experts stress the importance of preparedness, as even a single storm can cause significant damage, highlighting the need for ongoing vigilance.