Polymarket Backs No in $79 Million Strategy Bitcoin Bet as UMA Weighs June 1 Filing
Updated
Updated · CoinDesk · Jun 2
Polymarket Backs No in $79 Million Strategy Bitcoin Bet as UMA Weighs June 1 Filing
1 articles · Updated · CoinDesk · Jun 2
$79 million in Polymarket wagers now lean toward “No” after the platform said Strategy’s disclosed 32 BTC sale does not qualify for a May 31 deadline because confirmation arrived on June 1.
The dispute centers on whether the contract was event-based or announcement-based: Strategy’s 8-K says the sale occurred between May 26 and May 31, but that filing was published only after the market closed.
Three camps emerged in UMA and Polymarket threads — “Yes” voters citing the sale date, “No” voters citing what was knowable by the deadline, and a smaller group arguing the rules were too vague to resolve cleanly.
Traders repriced the contract from 81% “Yes” during the fight to under 1%, but UMA token holders still make the final call and have diverged from Polymarket in past disputes.
When a few 'whales' can sway a $79 million bet, is decentralized justice on prediction markets truly possible?
Michael Saylor’s firm sold bitcoin. Is the world's most famous crypto bull quietly changing his long-held strategy?
After a vague contract imperiled $79M, can smart contracts ever capture real-world events without ambiguity?